* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/17/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 18 17 17 21 27 34 40 44 47 53 59 V (KT) LAND 25 21 18 17 17 21 27 34 40 44 47 53 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 13 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 44 34 38 48 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 165 166 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 63 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 49 62 47 39 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 40 40 25 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 71 66 50 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.0 102.3 102.5 102.6 103.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 19 19 16 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. -0. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -8. -4. 2. 9. 15. 19. 22. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 101.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 3.3% 3.8% 13.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 4.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.3% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##