* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/18/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 42 48 53 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 42 48 53 56 58 62 65 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 29 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.8 103.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 102.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/18/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.3 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.7 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.4% 31.6% 16.4% 12.1% 8.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.8% 17.6% 9.6% 4.1% 3.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/18/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##