* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062018 06/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 39 44 52 60 65 70 69 64 59 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 39 44 52 60 65 70 69 64 59 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 42 45 46 44 42 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 9 8 10 8 12 5 5 11 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 3 2 3 -2 0 -1 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 60 56 56 57 54 69 64 67 79 212 272 226 186 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.9 26.7 26.9 26.3 24.9 25.9 23.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 151 145 143 130 131 125 112 123 97 98 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 68 68 67 66 62 63 61 55 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 17 18 19 21 22 22 22 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 50 47 50 54 51 38 12 19 25 33 17 200 MB DIV 72 84 104 83 72 32 33 7 -12 8 16 -10 -7 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 5 2 -1 LAND (KM) 763 779 815 865 888 881 975 1040 1090 1167 1326 1414 1504 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 10 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 26 24 19 12 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 8. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 9. 14. 22. 30. 35. 40. 39. 34. 29. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 SIX 06/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.77 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 20.9% 20.1% 13.6% 8.7% 16.4% 17.8% 9.2% Logistic: 0.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.4% 7.3% 4.8% 2.9% 6.2% 6.7% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 SIX 06/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX