* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062018 06/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 53 60 67 68 65 63 54 51 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 53 60 67 68 65 63 54 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 38 41 43 43 42 38 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 10 16 11 3 7 6 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 5 5 -1 0 -2 1 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 50 53 50 48 61 63 67 74 93 257 286 212 189 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.6 26.7 26.9 26.1 24.9 25.6 23.4 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 152 147 139 140 130 132 124 112 119 96 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 68 68 69 66 63 62 63 56 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 17 18 19 20 22 23 21 20 20 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 50 50 44 44 46 48 40 20 8 15 14 25 16 200 MB DIV 87 103 79 72 63 26 34 -1 -1 0 2 -13 -3 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 1 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 797 828 879 933 917 931 1006 1061 1116 1207 1350 1450 1570 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.4 115.2 116.8 118.2 119.7 121.4 123.5 125.5 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 22 15 9 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30. 37. 38. 35. 33. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.42 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 20.6% 19.5% 13.1% 8.3% 15.5% 16.7% 8.7% Logistic: 1.4% 8.6% 4.1% 2.1% 0.3% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.5% 8.1% 5.1% 2.9% 6.8% 6.9% 3.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX