* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062018 06/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 47 50 51 47 43 37 34 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 42 47 50 51 47 43 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 33 32 30 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 11 12 12 14 6 4 6 6 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 3 4 0 -2 -3 4 3 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 50 48 57 63 59 65 94 193 267 218 208 197 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 26.8 26.9 26.6 25.4 26.0 23.4 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 147 145 143 131 132 128 116 123 96 98 94 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 69 68 65 61 57 55 54 45 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 46 50 54 56 46 20 26 22 31 31 52 200 MB DIV 91 61 52 45 38 18 2 -21 -6 -17 -21 -19 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 885 939 975 976 991 1053 1128 1202 1267 1360 1420 1541 1715 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.1 19.1 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.9 113.0 114.1 115.1 117.0 118.7 120.2 121.6 123.3 125.2 127.3 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 20 13 9 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 20. 21. 17. 13. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 110.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.76 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.86 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 16.6% 9.2% 8.9% 0.0% 10.9% 12.4% 6.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.8% 3.2% 3.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.3% 2.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 SIX 06/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX