* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 45 50 53 56 57 54 48 44 40 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 45 50 53 56 57 54 48 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 41 43 43 43 41 37 31 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 14 14 13 9 5 2 4 4 0 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 3 1 0 0 -3 3 6 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 50 48 54 66 68 80 78 119 324 273 301 346 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.7 25.3 25.9 24.0 23.4 22.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 143 136 131 130 115 122 103 97 90 92 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 64 64 60 58 57 54 45 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 20 20 22 22 22 21 19 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 51 55 57 53 54 28 19 25 30 42 41 49 200 MB DIV 48 45 59 46 40 33 -12 -20 -4 10 -29 -21 -20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 1 4 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 944 980 987 999 1022 1106 1165 1228 1300 1370 1476 1630 1803 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.2 114.3 115.3 116.2 118.0 119.8 121.2 122.6 124.3 126.5 128.8 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 9 6 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 19. 13. 9. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.2 112.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.99 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 16.2% 9.9% 9.7% 0.0% 11.3% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.2% 3.6% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 29.0% 15.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX