* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 52 54 55 55 54 48 40 34 30 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 52 54 55 55 54 48 40 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 50 50 49 46 42 36 29 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 16 17 16 14 7 1 6 10 12 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 -1 0 -2 0 1 7 3 5 3 5 SHEAR DIR 49 54 65 65 69 79 64 85 273 272 289 257 271 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.0 26.7 26.8 25.5 25.7 24.3 23.2 22.4 23.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 134 130 131 118 120 105 94 86 92 86 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 62 63 61 57 56 52 45 37 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 20 18 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 48 52 49 57 42 23 31 32 38 37 48 50 200 MB DIV 50 75 56 33 21 6 -17 -4 -1 -18 -41 -33 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 4 5 0 3 -2 LAND (KM) 968 968 983 1013 1052 1105 1190 1268 1326 1382 1482 1660 1863 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.0 21.0 21.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.2 115.3 116.3 117.2 118.9 120.7 122.3 123.9 125.6 127.6 129.9 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -5. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 8. 0. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 113.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 20.9% 12.8% 11.6% 6.8% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.4% 4.9% 4.2% 2.4% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX