* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 50 52 49 44 37 31 24 19 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 50 52 49 44 37 31 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 52 52 50 47 43 37 30 23 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 16 16 11 1 9 9 13 12 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 8 2 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 44 50 54 57 64 66 179 265 271 272 270 269 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.1 26.7 26.9 26.3 24.8 25.8 23.5 22.5 22.4 22.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 135 130 133 126 110 121 97 87 86 90 82 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 63 62 62 62 61 54 47 39 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 20 21 20 18 16 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 46 52 47 26 20 22 18 32 29 45 17 200 MB DIV 65 65 30 15 0 -4 -8 2 -9 -43 -22 -25 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 2 2 7 1 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 943 961 992 1025 1066 1111 1183 1269 1321 1399 1509 1652 1740 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.0 116.0 116.9 117.8 119.5 121.1 122.7 124.5 126.4 128.3 130.3 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 7. 4. -1. -8. -14. -21. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 114.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 17.1% 11.0% 10.6% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.2% 3.8% 3.6% 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 15.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX