* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 46 44 41 37 29 24 18 15 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 46 44 41 37 29 24 18 15 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 47 47 45 42 37 31 24 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 8 7 3 7 11 13 13 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 6 3 4 3 5 7 SHEAR DIR 50 57 56 67 66 287 230 263 240 263 242 260 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.8 26.8 25.2 25.4 24.2 22.9 22.3 22.8 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 131 132 132 115 117 105 91 85 90 85 82 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 64 62 61 58 56 49 41 34 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 20 18 18 16 13 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 42 42 34 19 18 13 32 41 61 49 13 200 MB DIV 50 28 10 15 10 -12 -10 -9 0 -34 -30 -29 -27 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 5 9 -4 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 936 963 999 1044 1071 1144 1231 1302 1369 1473 1625 1725 1793 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.6 118.5 120.4 122.1 123.8 125.7 127.7 129.8 131.8 133.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -16. -21. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 114.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.60 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 13.6% 11.2% 6.6% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.8% 3.8% 2.2% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX