* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 48 45 41 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 48 45 41 33 25 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 51 49 45 40 33 26 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 4 3 7 12 15 16 21 20 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 5 2 4 2 6 13 16 SHEAR DIR 45 54 62 25 301 231 250 220 242 238 242 232 237 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.7 25.1 22.7 22.0 22.7 22.3 22.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 128 122 120 114 89 81 89 85 86 91 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 59 59 59 55 47 43 37 33 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 21 20 19 16 14 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 35 24 17 24 23 34 37 52 44 24 -8 200 MB DIV 26 26 -4 -17 -9 17 30 -3 -16 -39 -21 -12 -7 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -2 -1 0 3 6 8 -2 -2 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 992 1040 1073 1109 1152 1259 1348 1413 1494 1618 1784 1869 1955 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.0 22.5 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.3 122.2 124.1 125.9 127.6 129.5 131.6 133.6 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -17. -25. -33. -38. -44. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 116.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX