* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 06/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 25 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 30 27 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 5 4 6 8 14 14 17 20 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -2 4 2 3 2 3 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 28 332 275 257 267 234 254 240 249 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.7 25.4 22.6 21.7 22.5 22.2 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 127 117 120 117 88 79 87 84 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 55 55 56 53 47 41 36 32 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 17 17 16 14 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 36 15 11 23 13 30 44 42 30 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 2 -7 14 5 19 -1 -27 -34 -31 -40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 4 6 -7 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1074 1109 1153 1202 1256 1336 1382 1473 1603 1775 1943 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.7 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 119.1 120.1 121.1 122.0 123.8 125.6 127.5 129.4 131.6 134.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -11. -14. -18. -24. -29. -36. -42. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 118.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 06/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX