* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072018 07/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 48 57 76 91 105 114 109 101 90 78 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 48 57 76 91 105 114 109 101 90 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 48 64 84 105 110 100 85 67 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 6 6 7 4 9 8 9 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 0 2 -1 2 4 7 11 14 SHEAR DIR 53 35 21 39 22 20 346 63 67 53 17 359 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 27.1 26.9 26.2 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 145 145 152 151 151 136 134 127 98 93 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.2 -54.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 70 73 73 71 67 66 62 60 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 21 23 28 34 40 45 43 41 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 47 46 51 57 71 72 80 67 64 45 33 200 MB DIV 69 50 43 49 78 80 102 90 18 -40 22 30 -11 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -9 -2 2 2 4 27 LAND (KM) 786 800 833 869 905 985 1091 1119 1183 1264 1398 1489 1573 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.4 18.7 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.2 108.3 109.4 111.5 113.6 115.7 118.0 120.5 123.2 125.7 128.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 32 41 51 43 36 31 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 16. 25. 38. 37. 34. 28. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 19. 15. 7. 1. -4. -7. -10. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 18. 27. 46. 61. 75. 84. 79. 71. 60. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 104.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.37 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 25.1% 24.4% 17.0% 11.6% 21.3% 23.0% 29.4% Logistic: 2.2% 16.2% 8.2% 3.5% 1.1% 12.8% 39.9% 26.4% Bayesian: 2.0% 40.8% 19.4% 5.7% 1.1% 0.7% 5.7% 5.3% Consensus: 5.6% 27.4% 17.4% 8.7% 4.6% 11.6% 22.8% 20.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 37.0% 45.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX