* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 49 59 69 92 109 120 122 114 102 89 77 V (KT) LAND 35 40 49 59 69 92 109 120 122 114 102 89 77 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 57 77 102 120 114 98 80 60 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 4 4 7 8 2 4 5 3 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 5 3 10 10 11 SHEAR DIR 24 17 48 28 23 37 353 59 62 43 101 183 221 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.5 28.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.7 21.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 145 144 150 151 151 144 134 126 122 79 88 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 74 74 75 69 70 68 69 64 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 23 24 30 35 42 46 44 39 36 32 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 49 54 58 60 61 72 68 46 30 19 6 200 MB DIV 57 38 41 74 88 106 79 106 5 7 7 2 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 2 7 43 LAND (KM) 801 823 853 888 920 1018 1079 1115 1211 1282 1385 1454 1583 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 107.9 109.0 110.1 112.2 114.1 116.4 119.0 121.5 123.9 126.4 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 13 14 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 50 48 36 40 19 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 59.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 12. 17. 28. 38. 37. 31. 26. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 11. 21. 28. 22. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 14. 24. 34. 57. 74. 85. 87. 79. 67. 54. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 105.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.71 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.39 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 47.2% 31.6% 20.2% 14.8% 36.8% 45.7% 33.1% Logistic: 21.3% 71.5% 55.8% 41.7% 28.7% 59.0% 59.8% 29.2% Bayesian: 5.8% 78.1% 59.6% 35.8% 17.9% 82.9% 78.8% 5.1% Consensus: 14.9% 65.6% 49.0% 32.6% 20.5% 59.5% 61.4% 22.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 36.0% 22.0% 13.0% 6.0% 49.0% 61.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX