* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 64 76 89 117 136 138 127 109 93 73 58 V (KT) LAND 45 53 64 76 89 117 136 138 127 109 93 73 58 V (KT) LGEM 45 54 64 74 86 112 128 124 112 96 73 50 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 7 4 5 8 9 8 7 4 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 2 0 1 6 11 16 17 10 SHEAR DIR 19 30 21 40 9 15 68 56 43 19 317 269 266 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.0 26.6 26.9 26.2 22.9 22.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 151 153 154 150 145 131 134 127 93 91 91 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 72 74 73 71 69 65 60 57 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 30 31 38 44 46 46 41 37 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 58 62 61 69 74 87 77 64 47 30 35 200 MB DIV 53 62 98 106 107 104 56 -34 -32 42 31 -4 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 2 4 30 24 LAND (KM) 822 850 881 927 985 1080 1115 1222 1309 1414 1473 1574 1732 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.2 17.4 19.0 20.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.6 115.8 118.3 120.9 123.4 125.8 128.3 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 48 39 33 41 32 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 10. 17. 21. 28. 33. 28. 23. 15. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 19. 31. 44. 72. 91. 93. 82. 64. 48. 28. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 9.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.74 10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.35 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 -6.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 55.4% 48.1% 42.6% 26.1% 52.8% 55.9% 12.0% Logistic: 30.2% 68.8% 58.5% 43.7% 21.7% 58.0% 51.7% 13.9% Bayesian: 54.1% 87.9% 84.9% 76.3% 54.4% 82.1% 73.0% 0.9% Consensus: 35.6% 70.7% 63.8% 54.2% 34.1% 64.3% 60.2% 8.9% DTOPS: 31.0% 92.0% 88.0% 74.0% 57.0% 95.0% 73.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX