* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 89 104 130 146 143 127 107 86 68 53 V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 89 104 130 146 143 127 107 86 68 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 67 79 91 104 126 133 119 104 85 62 45 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 4 7 7 7 9 7 6 1 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 4 3 2 1 5 6 15 16 11 8 SHEAR DIR 52 51 49 23 38 38 52 45 11 59 126 206 200 SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.3 26.5 26.3 25.6 22.0 22.8 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 153 154 153 148 138 130 128 121 83 92 79 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 74 74 69 69 63 62 59 57 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 32 36 41 47 48 46 41 35 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 61 58 62 73 83 85 64 54 35 38 0 200 MB DIV 67 91 102 104 116 51 52 -16 -11 20 7 18 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -2 4 4 -3 9 29 20 LAND (KM) 826 871 918 966 1026 1082 1132 1223 1305 1423 1499 1621 1714 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.6 21.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.3 114.4 116.8 119.2 121.7 124.2 126.7 129.3 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 42 33 39 37 19 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 10. 16. 20. 26. 28. 22. 14. 8. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 34. 49. 75. 91. 88. 72. 52. 31. 13. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.3 107.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 14.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.68 11.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 13.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -8.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 1.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 81% is 6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 13.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.7% 80.7% 74.6% 66.7% 52.4% 61.8% 48.0% 10.1% Logistic: 47.5% 77.6% 67.7% 58.4% 27.0% 66.5% 43.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 77.4% 94.1% 95.5% 94.5% 50.3% 83.3% 42.2% 0.0% Consensus: 56.5% 84.1% 79.3% 73.2% 43.2% 70.5% 44.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 67.0% 98.0% 98.0% 91.0% 86.0% 98.0% 67.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX