* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP062018 07/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 4 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 262 267 266 260 258 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 21.2 21.3 22.1 22.4 21.8 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 74 75 83 87 81 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 43 40 38 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 27 23 32 36 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -25 -18 -3 -15 -17 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 4 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1312 1366 1428 1501 1580 1754 1907 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.4 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.8 126.9 128.0 129.2 131.7 134.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -16. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -19. -24. -30. -34. -37. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 124.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062018 EMILIA 07/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062018 EMILIA 07/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX