* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 71 81 93 109 120 119 107 93 77 63 54 V (KT) LAND 55 61 71 81 93 109 120 119 107 93 77 63 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 70 79 88 102 106 99 87 68 48 35 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 10 11 7 9 7 7 4 5 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 4 2 2 4 14 19 16 7 7 SHEAR DIR 42 44 63 45 40 27 34 36 30 9 232 235 220 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.0 26.4 26.9 26.1 22.9 22.6 22.8 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 154 153 151 145 129 134 126 92 89 91 82 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 74 74 70 69 65 64 61 58 55 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 33 36 40 42 46 46 42 38 33 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 62 63 59 64 71 67 75 59 45 30 18 6 -9 200 MB DIV 89 98 100 99 112 46 34 10 34 8 10 16 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 3 7 25 29 29 LAND (KM) 883 923 978 1034 1083 1100 1198 1279 1392 1473 1559 1676 1724 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.4 17.6 19.0 20.6 22.1 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.2 111.3 112.4 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.7 123.3 125.8 128.2 130.4 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 36 19 15 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 53.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 21. 19. 15. 8. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 19. 25. 20. 10. 2. -5. -9. -13. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 16. 26. 38. 54. 65. 64. 52. 38. 22. 8. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 9.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.8% 59.8% 47.5% 40.1% 22.5% 37.1% 22.3% 8.6% Logistic: 21.7% 53.6% 36.4% 25.8% 7.9% 30.4% 15.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 32.3% 74.5% 75.4% 58.2% 14.1% 57.4% 24.3% 0.0% Consensus: 26.6% 62.7% 53.1% 41.4% 14.8% 41.6% 20.6% 3.3% DTOPS: 10.0% 92.0% 85.0% 66.0% 63.0% 78.0% 34.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX