* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 75 85 94 111 120 117 103 84 70 56 50 V (KT) LAND 60 66 75 85 94 111 120 117 103 84 70 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 60 67 74 81 88 101 102 94 79 60 43 33 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 11 10 8 6 6 12 3 2 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 2 1 4 8 11 19 12 4 7 SHEAR DIR 45 29 24 16 33 9 38 58 62 72 212 230 234 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.6 26.4 26.5 25.8 22.0 22.5 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 151 149 141 129 130 123 83 88 84 84 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 70 66 65 63 59 58 56 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 31 33 36 37 42 45 45 41 34 31 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 68 72 75 78 81 57 48 32 21 -18 -24 200 MB DIV 99 96 106 104 84 83 43 20 18 -24 23 31 14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -3 2 3 0 8 26 10 31 LAND (KM) 917 964 1024 1087 1110 1146 1229 1305 1433 1490 1576 1673 1701 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.8 18.0 19.5 21.2 22.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.7 111.8 113.0 114.1 116.6 119.0 121.5 124.1 126.5 128.8 131.1 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 28 15 15 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 53.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 18. 16. 8. 3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 19. 24. 20. 10. 2. -5. -9. -13. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 34. 51. 60. 57. 43. 24. 10. -4. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.4 109.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -5.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.3% 58.3% 43.5% 39.2% 26.0% 32.1% 21.7% 7.4% Logistic: 25.0% 54.3% 33.7% 24.2% 8.6% 29.9% 10.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 55.2% 86.9% 88.3% 82.1% 41.7% 45.9% 9.2% 0.0% Consensus: 36.2% 66.5% 55.2% 48.5% 25.5% 36.0% 13.6% 2.7% DTOPS: 59.0% 86.0% 78.0% 59.0% 49.0% 50.0% 22.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX