* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 76 84 91 102 104 99 88 73 62 52 45 V (KT) LAND 65 70 76 84 91 102 104 99 88 73 62 52 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 83 89 95 90 79 63 45 34 26 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 11 9 9 7 11 3 3 6 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 0 3 5 9 18 13 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 34 27 23 38 21 31 32 50 13 331 268 231 232 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 26.7 26.9 25.8 23.5 22.1 22.3 20.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 152 151 132 134 123 99 84 86 68 66 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 69 68 69 64 61 56 57 58 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 38 39 44 45 43 39 33 30 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 68 68 75 79 77 88 64 55 41 34 11 0 -2 200 MB DIV 110 104 121 93 73 51 11 39 8 -9 7 17 0 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 3 9 18 17 24 17 LAND (KM) 931 974 1028 1055 1062 1130 1196 1306 1404 1494 1615 1670 1760 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.6 16.8 18.0 19.3 20.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.5 112.5 113.8 115.0 117.5 120.0 122.6 125.2 127.6 129.9 132.4 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 15 13 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 30.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 13. 13. 14. 10. 3. -1. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 26. 37. 39. 34. 23. 8. -3. -13. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.8 110.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.70 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -4.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 41.1% 32.5% 23.6% 14.7% 21.1% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 17.0% 40.7% 23.9% 16.7% 7.0% 12.4% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 46.3% 72.1% 74.3% 59.2% 12.9% 22.1% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 29.8% 51.3% 43.6% 33.2% 11.5% 18.5% 7.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 21.0% 50.0% 44.0% 38.0% 26.0% 25.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX