* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 90 94 97 93 85 72 64 54 48 43 41 V (KT) LAND 80 84 90 94 97 93 85 72 64 54 48 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 89 91 90 81 66 47 35 27 22 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 3 1 6 5 5 4 3 7 7 6 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 4 8 14 9 4 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 12 50 27 58 47 99 146 158 193 197 217 256 270 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.5 26.6 25.3 24.4 21.0 22.0 21.2 19.7 20.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 140 130 131 118 108 73 83 74 61 68 74 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 65 65 65 61 59 57 50 49 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 39 42 43 46 45 42 35 32 27 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 78 78 82 62 47 25 11 -17 -17 -37 -42 200 MB DIV 93 95 99 75 25 13 19 -9 19 22 20 4 -3 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 3 5 7 20 25 26 16 20 6 17 LAND (KM) 989 1000 1029 1078 1114 1202 1277 1351 1452 1475 1504 1593 1671 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 16.9 18.3 19.7 21.3 23.3 24.8 25.9 26.7 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 115.1 116.3 117.6 118.9 121.6 123.9 126.3 128.6 130.6 132.3 134.2 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 7. 5. -3. -8. -14. -18. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 17. 13. 5. -8. -16. -26. -32. -37. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 113.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.49 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 29.8% 21.6% 18.2% 12.5% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 19.1% 10.7% 6.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.0% 4.9% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.9% 17.9% 11.7% 8.8% 4.6% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 23.0% 35.0% 22.0% 17.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX