* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 95 97 97 88 77 63 53 44 38 31 28 V (KT) LAND 90 93 95 97 97 88 77 63 53 44 38 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 94 93 90 76 59 41 31 24 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 3 2 10 2 5 7 11 9 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 6 7 13 9 2 3 -1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 29 170 119 63 336 102 180 189 233 231 256 257 251 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 24.6 22.1 20.3 21.6 20.3 20.0 21.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 132 133 110 84 66 79 64 60 72 75 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 66 66 64 62 59 52 46 45 43 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 40 42 44 44 42 38 33 28 26 22 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 66 74 80 75 66 55 27 23 -3 -7 -21 -21 -18 200 MB DIV 89 91 81 9 -9 43 2 12 15 17 0 14 -7 700-850 TADV 1 1 5 4 5 9 18 32 15 21 14 9 10 LAND (KM) 1004 1027 1067 1106 1146 1231 1267 1362 1501 1516 1549 1649 1715 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.9 20.4 22.0 23.8 25.2 26.2 26.7 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.2 117.4 118.7 120.0 122.4 124.5 126.9 129.6 131.7 133.2 134.9 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 15 14 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -24. -31. -37. -42. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 0. -5. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. -2. -13. -27. -37. -46. -52. -59. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.2 115.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 9.8% 5.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 9.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX