* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 100 100 99 88 73 60 50 42 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 95 98 100 100 99 88 73 60 50 42 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 95 97 97 94 89 72 53 38 29 24 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 3 4 5 7 5 5 3 4 1 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 3 5 12 7 3 3 5 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 336 350 32 67 48 131 179 146 242 281 212 248 314 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.0 24.4 20.9 20.6 21.5 20.3 20.6 21.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 134 125 108 71 68 77 65 67 74 73 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 69 69 65 61 58 53 48 45 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 41 43 43 42 40 35 31 27 24 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 71 78 74 55 50 37 20 18 -17 -15 -18 -24 -43 200 MB DIV 76 74 57 13 26 5 3 41 32 22 17 4 -11 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 1 0 12 24 20 13 22 5 15 6 LAND (KM) 1029 1076 1125 1146 1182 1261 1326 1426 1543 1576 1655 1745 1772 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.7 19.3 20.8 22.3 23.6 24.8 25.9 26.6 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.2 118.5 119.7 120.8 123.2 125.6 127.8 130.0 132.1 134.3 136.0 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 12 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -20. -29. -37. -43. -47. -51. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -8. -15. -20. -25. -27. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. -7. -22. -35. -45. -53. -60. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.5 115.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 11.3% 5.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 9.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX