* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 71 64 49 39 33 28 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 71 64 49 39 33 28 21 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 79 71 63 55 40 29 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 5 5 4 9 12 15 17 21 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 14 16 15 14 5 4 -2 -1 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 333 276 188 192 213 199 231 232 249 244 243 225 227 SST (C) 26.9 24.9 23.8 23.7 22.7 20.9 19.6 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.1 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 114 102 101 90 71 62 61 63 70 75 71 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 61 61 57 52 48 42 38 36 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 39 37 35 32 28 25 23 20 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 39 30 13 1 -15 -27 -17 -14 -15 -34 -36 200 MB DIV 51 64 66 29 -12 -8 13 23 3 20 -4 -16 -18 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 16 22 27 22 20 15 15 11 8 8 LAND (KM) 1180 1225 1286 1312 1328 1429 1531 1574 1653 1720 1723 1760 1815 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 21.3 22.8 24.1 25.0 26.0 27.1 28.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.6 123.7 124.8 127.2 129.2 131.2 133.4 135.2 136.8 138.0 139.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -18. -27. -33. -39. -43. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -26. -29. -32. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -21. -36. -46. -52. -57. -64. -67. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.9 119.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX