* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 64 57 41 32 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 64 57 41 32 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 73 65 57 49 35 27 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 6 9 13 17 23 17 13 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 16 17 16 13 9 6 2 0 -2 -2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 286 209 208 196 190 249 264 243 251 245 234 219 267 SST (C) 25.3 24.0 23.7 23.2 21.8 20.2 19.7 19.9 20.4 21.4 21.3 21.0 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 104 101 96 81 64 62 61 65 75 73 70 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 60 59 53 50 43 40 37 37 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 35 34 33 29 25 24 20 18 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 25 14 9 3 -29 -11 -13 -20 -40 -53 -59 200 MB DIV 62 63 27 2 -8 12 2 7 -8 3 -21 -20 -16 700-850 TADV 9 8 14 19 26 27 15 19 11 11 3 13 5 LAND (KM) 1213 1259 1309 1336 1377 1477 1591 1644 1744 1808 1778 1840 1771 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.3 25.1 26.0 27.0 27.7 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.6 125.8 128.0 130.2 132.5 134.7 136.3 137.4 138.7 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -10. -19. -27. -31. -36. -39. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -22. -27. -31. -34. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -39. -48. -52. -58. -64. -68. -71. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 121.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX