* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 62 54 40 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 62 54 40 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 69 62 53 45 32 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 6 6 9 10 17 22 27 23 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 19 14 14 14 7 8 0 1 1 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 238 241 231 206 169 254 252 248 245 248 241 268 284 SST (C) 24.1 23.7 23.4 22.1 21.6 20.5 19.0 20.2 20.7 21.6 21.2 21.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 105 101 98 84 79 67 62 63 68 76 71 71 76 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 55 52 46 42 37 36 32 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 33 30 26 23 20 18 15 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 11 7 5 -6 -24 -20 -19 -20 -32 -42 -53 200 MB DIV 63 43 16 0 2 -5 9 -8 4 -1 -19 -17 -14 700-850 TADV 14 19 23 26 31 17 17 19 15 6 8 7 7 LAND (KM) 1264 1319 1344 1383 1434 1555 1649 1700 1791 1857 1844 1802 1681 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 22.1 23.3 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.3 124.5 125.7 126.9 129.1 131.3 133.4 135.4 136.9 138.0 139.2 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -26. -29. -33. -35. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -21. -35. -44. -49. -56. -64. -70. -76. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 122.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX