* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082018 07/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 42 41 38 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 43 42 42 41 38 33 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 32 28 24 21 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 13 14 12 19 17 17 17 23 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 4 0 4 4 10 7 6 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 297 262 288 312 311 271 287 265 258 280 270 250 245 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.2 26.7 27.0 26.1 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 138 141 142 137 134 124 129 133 124 115 116 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.9 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 63 64 62 61 57 56 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -15 -9 -10 -14 -17 -36 -28 -23 -14 -3 2 -3 200 MB DIV 47 46 49 36 26 38 7 1 -9 -4 -6 -15 16 700-850 TADV -9 -16 -19 -15 -13 -13 -12 -7 -6 -2 0 4 7 LAND (KM) 1690 1763 1863 1962 2066 2213 2326 2259 2137 1991 1819 1629 1434 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.2 125.8 127.2 128.7 131.0 132.7 133.9 134.9 136.1 137.6 139.3 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 10 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 27 23 8 4 4 3 8 14 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 8. 3. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 122.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082018 EIGHT 07/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.50 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 19.5% 18.9% 12.8% 8.4% 15.0% 15.9% 8.3% Logistic: 3.6% 8.9% 4.0% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 11.0% 7.9% 4.9% 2.9% 5.7% 5.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 11.0% 15.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 EIGHT 07/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX