* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082018 07/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 44 44 42 40 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 44 44 42 40 36 30 25 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 37 35 32 28 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 13 14 7 17 15 15 22 27 30 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 5 0 3 4 7 11 3 3 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 287 297 314 310 306 276 272 249 287 298 291 286 305 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.2 27.3 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 141 142 136 136 130 131 132 124 123 124 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 63 60 59 53 50 50 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 -10 -12 -19 -22 -23 -15 -14 -15 -9 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 44 50 32 38 49 20 0 4 5 -1 -3 -25 -13 700-850 TADV -18 -21 -17 -12 -12 -11 -8 -9 -4 -2 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1785 1883 1986 2071 2146 2245 2323 2137 1899 1684 1493 1266 990 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.6 126.0 127.4 128.7 129.9 131.7 133.1 134.9 137.0 139.0 140.9 143.1 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 10 8 8 10 10 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 27 21 8 5 4 3 8 9 0 0 3 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 6. 0. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 124.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.53 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 20.6% 19.3% 13.0% 8.6% 14.7% 15.3% 7.9% Logistic: 5.4% 17.1% 9.2% 4.8% 0.8% 2.9% 0.7% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 13.5% 9.7% 6.0% 3.2% 6.0% 5.4% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 EIGHT 07/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX