* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP082018 07/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 34 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 34 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 37 33 29 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 11 15 21 24 29 33 35 38 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 7 6 6 7 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 307 277 257 262 272 271 282 283 278 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.6 26.8 27.3 25.9 25.6 26.1 26.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 140 132 137 122 119 125 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 -56.0 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 59 58 56 49 46 47 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -10 -11 -8 -14 -16 -5 -1 -2 -6 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 35 47 59 42 11 -18 21 4 -12 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -12 -12 -13 -11 -9 -7 -4 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1970 2046 2128 2179 2233 2256 2023 1797 1587 1347 1100 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.0 18.0 17.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.7 129.0 130.3 131.2 132.1 133.8 135.9 137.9 139.8 142.1 144.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 7 6 5 6 3 12 2 0 1 12 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -30. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -5. -11. -16. -24. -30. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 127.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.14 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.5% 8.8% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.8% 3.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX