* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP082018 07/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 17 23 26 26 27 27 28 38 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 5 5 8 7 7 8 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 280 268 269 277 270 271 278 268 267 287 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.6 27.2 27.4 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 140 138 129 135 138 126 125 125 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 59 57 54 47 43 47 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -20 -17 -23 -26 -21 -22 -8 -7 0 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 33 44 31 19 7 -3 9 -2 -22 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -11 -11 -9 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2163 2245 2303 2306 2116 1950 1699 1400 1160 1007 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.4 130.5 131.6 132.5 133.5 135.1 136.6 138.9 141.7 144.0 145.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 10 12 12 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 3 8 11 2 1 8 11 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -21. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -26. -33. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 129.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX