* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 55 58 61 63 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 38 43 49 55 58 61 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 34 35 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 17 18 14 9 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 5 6 3 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 331 322 325 331 340 337 315 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.8 30.5 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 162 166 162 165 173 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 75 77 80 80 75 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -4 -14 -7 -9 9 20 47 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 63 90 130 136 152 108 56 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -7 -10 -2 1 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 301 281 271 272 277 261 343 405 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.4 16.7 18.1 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.4 98.4 99.5 100.5 102.7 105.2 108.0 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 27 33 36 38 39 30 20 9 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 96.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.22 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -4.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.0% 19.4% 13.3% 0.0% 18.6% 21.9% 42.6% Logistic: 2.6% 17.9% 8.4% 4.4% 0.9% 15.0% 14.2% 14.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 2.6% 4.3% 20.2% Consensus: 3.5% 14.6% 10.1% 6.0% 0.3% 12.1% 13.5% 25.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX