* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 41 46 51 56 58 60 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 41 46 51 56 58 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 19 17 9 13 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 3 5 7 5 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 314 313 319 324 2 312 1 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.9 30.8 30.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 164 166 167 173 173 172 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -52.1 -52.7 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 77 77 81 79 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -2 -2 -4 2 29 42 70 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 92 134 126 132 160 86 94 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -4 -5 -5 -8 8 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 242 214 197 182 159 177 363 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.9 18.4 19.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.7 98.7 99.8 101.0 103.8 106.3 109.1 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 41 42 38 37 34 26 17 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 7. 14. 23. 28. 32. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 96.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.12 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 25.1% 22.0% 14.9% 10.0% 21.3% 28.6% 42.7% Logistic: 3.4% 25.5% 11.9% 6.8% 1.6% 24.8% 21.7% 13.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 8.3% 5.9% 1.1% 0.0% 10.0% 12.5% 19.6% Consensus: 4.9% 19.6% 13.3% 7.6% 3.9% 18.7% 21.0% 25.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 28.0% 19.0% 14.0% 3.0% 3.0% 7.0% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX