* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 58 66 72 73 71 69 67 66 64 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 54 58 66 72 73 71 69 67 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 50 53 56 60 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 16 16 12 6 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 6 8 8 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 327 334 342 346 318 308 319 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.8 29.8 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 167 167 168 173 165 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -52.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 77 78 81 79 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 1 2 15 34 47 63 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 144 128 126 136 90 73 5 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -6 -8 -11 0 4 16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 279 246 233 215 198 196 260 356 428 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 17.4 18.6 19.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.6 99.4 100.7 102.0 105.1 107.4 110.1 113.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 12 15 16 14 13 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 41 38 37 36 28 23 16 5 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 33.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 11. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 26. 32. 33. 31. 29. 27. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 97.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.85 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 58.3% 33.0% 20.3% 14.5% 46.4% 55.5% 45.5% Logistic: 14.0% 53.3% 33.1% 24.3% 5.1% 46.4% 16.4% 11.6% Bayesian: 2.4% 43.1% 42.2% 16.8% 0.1% 51.6% 27.2% 11.7% Consensus: 12.0% 51.6% 36.1% 20.5% 6.6% 48.2% 33.0% 22.9% DTOPS: 17.0% 25.0% 17.0% 12.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX