* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 61 75 100 114 118 110 98 88 72 57 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 61 75 100 114 118 110 98 88 72 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 50 58 74 90 101 98 83 65 52 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 2 7 12 10 9 4 3 1 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 3 4 7 2 1 0 4 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 9 24 325 65 95 37 32 356 338 356 300 314 268 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.6 29.9 29.4 28.3 26.5 24.1 23.6 22.2 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 167 166 170 163 159 148 129 104 99 84 71 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 74 75 75 76 74 72 70 71 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 23 26 30 31 34 34 32 32 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -22 -13 2 18 30 41 32 30 21 27 82 71 200 MB DIV 128 142 129 104 110 104 67 20 45 15 22 6 24 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -2 -13 0 5 0 -2 -7 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 490 486 477 457 445 472 502 411 434 438 552 635 786 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.4 19.7 21.1 22.5 23.7 24.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.5 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.8 115.8 118.2 120.5 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 31 32 26 16 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 16. 23. 27. 25. 25. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 26. 40. 65. 79. 83. 75. 63. 53. 37. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 13.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.29 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 11.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -8.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 67.8% 56.5% 45.4% 29.7% 54.4% 58.5% 39.0% Logistic: 23.9% 74.2% 60.4% 48.9% 10.8% 71.0% 40.6% 10.6% Bayesian: 4.5% 42.1% 50.7% 23.6% 0.6% 25.7% 24.2% 4.5% Consensus: 16.8% 61.4% 55.9% 39.3% 13.7% 50.4% 41.1% 18.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 59.0% 35.0% 13.0% 6.0% 41.0% 59.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 TWELVE 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX