* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 54 65 79 92 117 129 130 117 105 89 75 61 V (KT) LAND 45 54 65 79 92 117 129 130 117 105 89 75 61 V (KT) LGEM 45 54 63 73 83 102 113 112 97 76 61 48 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 10 11 14 9 10 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 5 7 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 27 29 28 55 32 23 355 346 326 290 269 230 245 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.6 28.7 27.6 25.2 23.4 23.1 21.9 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 165 168 167 160 152 141 116 97 94 81 68 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 74 73 72 75 75 73 72 72 70 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 20 24 27 32 34 37 35 35 33 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -14 -3 18 20 29 37 40 38 44 91 103 66 200 MB DIV 133 122 93 108 76 104 27 75 29 47 26 1 6 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 4 8 -3 6 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 536 533 535 525 523 564 485 424 424 528 632 740 844 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.5 18.8 20.4 21.9 23.2 24.1 25.1 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.4 108.8 110.1 111.6 113.1 115.0 117.2 119.8 121.8 123.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 12 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 33 34 34 24 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 15. 15. 15. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 8. 12. 17. 18. 25. 28. 29. 25. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 20. 34. 47. 72. 84. 85. 72. 60. 45. 30. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 15.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 16.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.31 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 13.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 13.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 9.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -10.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 71% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 71% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.9% 82.9% 80.1% 65.3% 53.1% 71.2% 70.8% 26.9% Logistic: 67.6% 90.2% 83.5% 79.5% 31.2% 84.9% 22.1% 5.8% Bayesian: 62.0% 85.8% 87.7% 81.3% 18.8% 72.4% 38.8% 1.3% Consensus: 57.8% 86.3% 83.8% 75.4% 34.4% 76.2% 43.9% 11.3% DTOPS: 18.0% 94.0% 88.0% 63.0% 48.0% 88.0% 61.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX