* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 89 99 120 131 131 115 100 81 61 45 V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 89 99 120 131 131 115 100 81 61 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 66 76 85 93 106 117 115 94 72 57 45 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 7 10 12 8 11 12 7 1 6 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 4 0 -4 4 -1 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 326 285 18 31 9 349 342 331 328 245 283 277 283 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.0 24.3 23.6 21.7 20.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 164 165 161 152 135 106 99 79 70 66 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.5 -50.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 73 73 76 72 72 70 71 71 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 24 26 31 30 33 37 42 39 37 32 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -1 14 20 21 41 46 54 64 68 101 90 65 200 MB DIV 123 110 112 91 118 91 48 68 16 49 19 1 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -8 -9 3 5 5 -1 -3 -5 -2 1 LAND (KM) 535 541 552 556 565 543 473 474 489 557 647 818 968 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.8 18.1 19.4 21.0 22.5 23.9 25.0 26.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.2 108.6 109.1 109.6 111.0 112.6 114.4 116.4 118.5 120.7 123.0 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 31 28 17 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 82.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 8. 9. 13. 16. 24. 25. 23. 17. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 9. 15. 30. 39. 32. 15. 3. -7. -15. -22. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 34. 44. 65. 76. 76. 60. 45. 26. 6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 12.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 13.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.76 13.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 13.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -9.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.9% 86.1% 78.2% 68.4% 53.3% 64.2% 51.7% 11.5% Logistic: 65.1% 80.9% 70.8% 64.9% 21.6% 67.8% 18.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 72.2% 76.3% 83.3% 74.6% 21.1% 53.1% 22.4% 0.2% Consensus: 65.1% 81.1% 77.4% 69.3% 32.0% 61.7% 30.7% 4.9% DTOPS: 40.0% 98.0% 96.0% 76.0% 80.0% 83.0% 39.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX