* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 77 87 97 110 121 114 99 81 63 50 37 V (KT) LAND 60 67 77 87 97 110 121 114 99 81 63 50 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 76 84 90 100 101 91 71 56 44 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 12 10 8 10 11 7 3 3 5 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 317 22 20 9 9 331 314 330 60 342 271 246 250 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.1 27.9 25.4 23.0 22.4 21.6 20.9 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 164 165 156 144 118 93 86 78 70 66 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 76 76 75 76 74 77 75 72 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 29 32 34 34 40 37 35 31 26 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 20 19 34 42 50 51 77 98 92 62 77 200 MB DIV 117 124 121 146 103 49 79 49 48 18 12 1 -1 700-850 TADV -1 -8 -6 -8 -4 10 11 -2 -2 -9 -2 -3 3 LAND (KM) 494 494 503 516 530 429 406 406 474 524 655 822 975 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 23.9 25.2 26.3 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.4 108.8 109.4 110.0 111.5 113.3 115.3 117.3 119.4 121.4 123.6 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 24 19 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 62.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 15. 15. 14. 10. 3. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 7. 11. 23. 29. 23. 11. 2. -5. -11. -16. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 17. 27. 37. 50. 62. 54. 39. 21. 3. -10. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 12.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.82 13.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 12.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.81 -9.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 5.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.1% 73.8% 69.5% 60.9% 45.4% 50.0% 23.7% 9.5% Logistic: 38.3% 64.1% 48.3% 37.3% 9.8% 32.7% 3.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 46.1% 57.6% 67.9% 52.5% 6.4% 24.0% 5.6% 0.1% Consensus: 43.2% 65.1% 61.9% 50.2% 20.5% 35.6% 11.1% 3.5% DTOPS: 37.0% 96.0% 90.0% 66.0% 69.0% 61.0% 17.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX