* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ILEANA EP112018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 60 68 73 74 73 71 70 71 70 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 60 68 73 74 73 71 70 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 49 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 302 306 309 329 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.6 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 174 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 30 37 51 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 155 135 130 111 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 1 8 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 151 241 352 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.8 107.4 109.0 110.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 24 21 17 11 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 18. 23. 24. 23. 21. 20. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.5 104.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112018 ILEANA 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.83 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 33.7% 24.2% 16.1% 10.5% 21.1% 21.3% 999.0% Logistic: 2.5% 12.3% 4.8% 2.1% 0.8% 3.8% 1.8% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 999.0% Consensus: 5.6% 15.6% 10.0% 6.1% 3.8% 8.5% 7.8% 999.0% DTOPS: 51.0% 17.0% 12.0% 13.0% 2.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ILEANA 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX