* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 79 85 89 95 96 90 82 71 60 50 43 V (KT) LAND 65 71 79 85 89 95 96 90 82 71 60 50 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 81 84 83 76 66 55 45 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 15 16 16 4 3 2 4 8 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 4 0 1 0 2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 10 50 31 17 360 322 295 312 258 217 214 235 203 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.6 28.1 27.0 23.5 22.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 165 164 161 145 135 99 90 75 72 67 65 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 78 77 76 76 75 73 73 73 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 33 33 33 35 33 30 28 25 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 18 44 46 44 55 57 60 80 67 45 47 200 MB DIV 142 137 143 150 98 6 60 30 16 -1 21 3 25 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -7 -3 2 19 7 0 -1 -7 -7 3 3 LAND (KM) 491 498 509 520 450 352 367 393 437 556 712 843 966 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.2 18.9 20.4 21.8 23.5 25.2 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.9 109.4 110.1 110.7 112.1 113.8 115.9 118.3 120.4 122.2 124.0 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 10 10 12 13 13 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 23 18 15 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. -1. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 20. 24. 30. 31. 25. 17. 6. -5. -14. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.4 108.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.6% 56.4% 38.3% 31.9% 15.2% 20.0% 17.6% 6.4% Logistic: 15.6% 25.8% 13.0% 8.0% 1.9% 3.6% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.7% 20.8% 22.4% 10.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.7% 34.3% 24.5% 16.7% 5.8% 8.1% 6.2% 2.2% DTOPS: 32.0% 80.0% 64.0% 41.0% 40.0% 30.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX