* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 47 50 51 52 54 55 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 42 47 50 51 52 54 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 40 42 44 46 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 17 15 9 14 8 10 12 14 16 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 4 8 18 16 21 14 45 28 55 47 51 12 45 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 27.0 26.8 26.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 137 134 134 126 122 123 122 134 133 126 108 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 63 62 61 62 57 59 67 71 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 15 15 14 15 16 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -5 5 18 22 13 12 2 -5 35 67 61 200 MB DIV 77 65 31 7 2 -21 -11 -8 10 18 31 6 -1 700-850 TADV -13 -14 -10 -9 -6 -11 -7 -6 -6 -7 -4 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1638 1707 1802 1876 1951 2065 2100 2052 1968 1818 1578 1317 1036 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 17.0 18.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.5 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.8 129.5 129.3 128.6 127.1 125.0 123.1 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 6 2 3 6 10 12 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 18 25 26 18 8 7 7 9 16 7 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 24. 25. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 123.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 THIRTEEN 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.4% 15.2% 10.1% 6.4% 12.1% 13.3% 7.8% Logistic: 1.3% 8.4% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1.5% 2.0% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 8.4% 6.0% 3.9% 2.4% 4.6% 5.1% 3.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 12.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 29.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 THIRTEEN 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX