* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 92 96 102 108 105 94 82 71 57 47 38 V (KT) LAND 75 83 92 96 102 108 105 94 82 71 57 47 38 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 89 94 96 91 78 60 48 38 32 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 14 7 2 3 2 4 14 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 3 2 0 2 -3 3 -3 -2 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 47 36 21 351 328 272 148 178 170 206 215 219 197 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.7 28.9 27.4 24.6 22.6 21.3 21.0 20.6 20.4 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 162 154 139 110 89 75 71 66 64 71 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 76 76 74 73 73 69 69 62 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 30 33 30 34 37 36 32 29 27 23 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 39 46 37 59 55 78 40 47 47 53 50 200 MB DIV 116 131 151 109 58 33 47 19 -9 -6 8 -2 2 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -3 3 19 13 -7 0 -16 -13 -11 2 3 LAND (KM) 491 493 498 432 366 344 324 392 494 648 753 863 1023 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.8 21.5 23.4 25.0 26.3 27.3 28.0 28.0 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.4 109.9 110.6 111.2 113.0 115.1 117.4 119.7 121.7 123.4 125.1 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 13 11 10 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 17 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 5. 9. 12. 10. 9. 6. 3. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 21. 27. 33. 30. 19. 7. -4. -18. -28. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 55.7% 36.3% 28.3% 15.2% 20.0% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 21.8% 26.7% 13.3% 7.5% 1.3% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 37.9% 34.9% 40.7% 26.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 34.3% 39.1% 30.1% 20.8% 5.8% 8.1% 5.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 45.0% 85.0% 70.0% 48.0% 53.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX