* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 58 61 61 62 61 61 60 58 51 43 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 58 61 61 62 61 61 60 58 51 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 61 63 63 63 63 62 59 55 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 9 10 9 2 5 3 3 9 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 1 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 9 18 18 23 4 31 35 47 120 297 265 268 230 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.9 26.7 25.5 24.7 24.1 23.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 135 131 125 130 128 116 109 102 96 86 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 62 60 60 58 55 54 47 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 5 17 22 19 26 29 35 51 87 145 162 200 MB DIV 66 31 8 1 0 -20 5 2 25 11 -4 -41 -31 700-850 TADV -14 -11 -10 -6 -9 -9 -6 -6 0 0 -1 -1 -26 LAND (KM) 1722 1805 1890 1950 2007 2075 2097 2046 1967 1897 1881 1883 1844 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.3 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.3 128.1 129.5 130.4 130.6 130.6 130.8 131.5 132.2 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 26 19 11 7 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 16. 16. 15. 13. 6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 124.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 24.4% 22.8% 15.9% 10.9% 17.6% 19.1% 8.6% Logistic: 4.8% 16.1% 6.5% 4.5% 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 15.5% 9.9% 6.8% 4.7% 6.8% 6.8% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX