* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 102 103 103 101 91 79 69 59 48 42 34 V (KT) LAND 90 97 102 103 103 101 91 79 69 59 48 42 34 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 100 100 97 87 74 59 46 38 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 12 10 2 1 3 3 9 18 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 0 0 -1 -2 1 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 6 349 353 327 312 226 129 144 251 230 234 189 216 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.2 26.7 24.5 23.1 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.3 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 158 147 132 109 94 76 71 67 63 68 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 75 74 75 73 73 73 68 64 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 33 33 34 33 29 27 24 22 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 13 32 40 33 31 42 55 62 81 54 33 37 46 200 MB DIV 113 145 89 48 25 55 19 22 12 18 -4 12 -9 700-850 TADV -11 -6 5 20 12 3 0 -5 -9 -6 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 512 522 450 389 352 351 417 452 560 716 852 985 1101 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 22.0 23.6 25.1 26.3 27.0 27.2 27.1 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.4 112.1 113.9 116.2 118.4 120.4 122.3 124.1 125.8 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 12 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 14 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -13. -22. -29. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 13. 13. 11. 2. -11. -21. -31. -42. -48. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.5 109.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.7% 27.4% 23.7% 16.8% 11.7% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.7% 25.1% 10.7% 6.9% 2.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 31.0% 12.7% 9.6% 7.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.8% 21.7% 14.7% 10.2% 4.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX