* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 55 59 61 60 59 53 53 47 40 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 55 59 61 60 59 53 53 47 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 56 59 60 59 55 50 46 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 8 8 4 2 3 3 1 11 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 -1 3 2 0 1 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 23 26 27 13 10 63 272 139 1 207 205 227 251 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.3 27.0 26.7 25.7 24.8 24.2 24.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 135 131 126 124 131 128 118 109 103 102 94 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 62 61 61 54 53 51 46 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 15 16 17 17 16 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 4 16 28 28 28 33 39 37 45 48 104 138 200 MB DIV 30 10 17 -3 -16 -14 1 20 5 -4 -15 -38 -30 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -7 -8 -9 -8 -7 -1 -3 0 0 -8 -9 LAND (KM) 1894 1976 2059 2099 2132 2167 2137 2079 2016 1960 1961 1978 1957 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.1 128.1 128.8 129.5 130.5 131.0 131.1 131.1 131.3 132.0 133.0 134.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 15 10 7 6 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 14. 16. 15. 14. 8. 8. 2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 126.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 19.4% 19.0% 13.0% 8.6% 15.7% 17.3% 8.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.8% 2.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 8.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.7% 7.3% 4.9% 3.3% 5.5% 5.9% 2.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.0% 14.0% 10.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX