* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 100 97 94 82 71 63 53 47 40 34 V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 100 97 94 82 71 63 53 47 40 34 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 97 95 91 78 64 52 41 35 31 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 12 9 6 4 2 1 3 8 11 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -4 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 8 10 354 328 311 37 22 326 246 230 236 178 198 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.1 28.0 27.3 25.5 23.6 21.3 21.7 20.6 20.7 20.0 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 156 145 137 119 99 75 78 66 67 59 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 74 73 72 72 70 70 65 63 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 32 34 32 33 30 27 25 22 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 32 45 48 45 44 44 63 51 62 37 38 30 35 200 MB DIV 136 111 53 36 39 0 35 -3 -20 0 -3 -6 -10 700-850 TADV -5 7 17 11 8 -8 7 -5 0 -5 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 511 436 378 349 358 361 425 481 622 755 914 1006 1071 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.8 24.4 25.8 26.8 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.3 113.1 115.1 117.2 119.3 121.2 123.0 124.7 126.2 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 11 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -8. -17. -25. -32. -37. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 1. -1. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 7. 4. -8. -19. -27. -37. -43. -50. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 110.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.51 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.2% 22.1% 20.0% 14.1% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 9.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 11.4% 8.2% 5.5% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX