* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 47 47 48 47 43 38 32 28 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 47 47 48 47 43 38 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 41 39 36 33 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 13 11 4 2 3 6 11 17 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 0 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 19 17 357 357 358 341 304 141 165 228 229 236 280 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.6 26.7 25.8 25.3 24.2 23.6 22.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 133 128 125 128 129 119 114 104 98 90 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 63 63 61 60 59 59 54 46 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 18 12 10 8 25 26 30 60 110 115 116 200 MB DIV 18 23 18 -2 -22 0 -12 25 7 7 -16 -42 -23 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -10 -11 -11 -9 -7 0 -1 -3 -6 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 1958 2005 2054 2086 2117 2105 2015 1950 1904 1866 1855 1868 1959 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 15.3 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.6 21.3 22.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.5 128.2 128.8 129.4 130.3 130.4 130.4 130.5 131.0 131.9 133.2 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 6 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 14 10 7 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.7 126.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.37 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 19.0% 10.8% 9.9% 6.3% 13.5% 14.8% 6.3% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.7% 3.7% 3.3% 2.1% 4.6% 5.0% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX