* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 92 92 86 78 65 56 47 39 28 21 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 92 92 86 78 65 56 47 39 28 21 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 86 82 70 57 44 36 30 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 10 5 2 4 3 7 10 12 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 -1 2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 358 318 307 324 284 72 122 165 204 209 170 149 137 SST (C) 29.8 29.2 28.1 27.4 26.6 24.6 23.4 21.3 21.1 20.7 20.7 20.6 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 157 146 139 130 110 97 74 72 67 67 65 68 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 72 72 70 70 68 64 60 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 34 34 32 32 28 25 23 22 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 39 45 41 49 62 67 52 33 36 39 52 200 MB DIV 103 56 44 43 47 28 12 2 19 -12 4 -14 3 700-850 TADV 5 19 16 13 8 0 -5 -2 -4 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 452 392 364 382 357 421 460 562 722 848 990 1070 1116 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.1 23.5 24.9 26.0 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.6 112.4 113.3 114.2 116.2 118.3 120.3 122.2 123.9 125.4 126.7 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -34. -39. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -4. -12. -25. -34. -43. -51. -62. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.58 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 16.0% 14.8% 10.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.6% 5.0% 3.3% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX