* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 79 77 73 66 57 48 42 36 30 25 20 V (KT) LAND 85 82 79 77 73 66 57 48 42 36 30 25 20 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 78 73 67 56 47 38 33 29 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 3 4 1 4 4 5 6 10 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 317 319 313 323 332 13 115 202 194 187 184 191 187 SST (C) 29.4 28.2 27.5 26.7 25.8 23.8 22.1 21.6 20.9 20.7 20.4 20.3 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 147 140 131 122 101 83 77 70 67 63 61 62 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 70 71 64 65 64 63 59 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 33 31 29 26 23 22 21 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 43 42 33 49 59 50 29 23 20 8 3 200 MB DIV 62 46 44 37 16 0 -10 0 -4 -10 -8 4 -7 700-850 TADV 24 13 9 6 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 387 346 345 342 323 411 456 588 753 883 994 1048 1089 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.2 25.5 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.7 114.6 116.7 118.8 120.7 122.6 124.3 125.8 126.8 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -19. -26. -32. -36. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -12. -19. -28. -37. -43. -49. -55. -60. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 111.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.06 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.5% 8.3% 4.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX