* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 34 34 33 33 31 30 27 25 22 20 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 34 34 33 33 31 30 27 25 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 13 8 7 4 4 2 12 11 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 0 2 0 3 0 0 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 358 357 356 348 329 344 229 249 224 250 248 291 261 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.1 26.4 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.4 23.9 22.9 23.0 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 126 123 126 130 128 121 116 100 89 91 89 92 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 62 60 59 57 54 54 50 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 11 5 6 13 18 32 34 76 113 114 94 91 200 MB DIV 12 1 -11 -2 -3 -7 25 12 -15 -16 -19 -9 -15 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -8 -6 -7 -4 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -9 -10 LAND (KM) 2047 2061 2077 2063 2051 1999 1941 1857 1753 1707 1742 1712 1706 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.5 20.0 21.3 22.2 23.4 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.2 128.8 129.3 129.7 130.0 130.2 130.2 130.1 130.0 130.3 131.2 132.4 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 7 7 6 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 8 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 12.7% 9.1% 4.5% 3.7% 10.1% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.9% 3.2% 1.6% 1.3% 3.4% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX