* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP122018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 67 65 58 54 49 43 39 35 31 26 V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 67 65 58 54 49 43 39 35 31 26 V (KT) LGEM 75 70 65 62 57 49 42 36 32 29 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 3 2 5 1 2 8 5 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 -1 -5 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 325 300 299 340 66 95 224 208 234 244 221 198 216 SST (C) 28.6 27.9 26.8 25.3 24.5 24.0 22.3 21.9 21.5 21.6 21.9 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 133 117 109 103 85 80 75 75 78 75 73 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 72 67 68 64 62 58 55 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 30 30 27 26 24 21 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 41 44 31 36 51 50 27 30 28 16 10 5 200 MB DIV 35 63 57 11 19 8 3 18 -7 -2 -6 1 -24 700-850 TADV 14 8 7 -1 -3 -1 -4 -2 1 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 349 355 357 341 379 450 553 714 830 936 1019 1045 1045 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.7 25.8 26.6 26.9 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.9 113.8 114.8 115.8 117.9 120.1 122.1 123.7 125.0 126.1 126.9 127.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -15. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -17. -21. -26. -32. -36. -40. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.3 111.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 16.4% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122018 JOHN 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX