* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP132018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 37 38 37 36 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 37 38 37 36 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 38 36 36 35 33 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 5 4 4 3 5 4 3 5 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 354 356 357 6 26 119 72 60 318 267 265 326 315 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.1 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 127 130 125 119 113 102 92 91 89 87 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 61 57 57 56 55 52 44 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 11 15 14 31 31 39 102 103 84 84 68 200 MB DIV -3 -22 -6 -3 -10 28 29 15 4 15 -28 -12 -28 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -5 -6 -7 -1 0 0 0 -4 -3 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 2080 2096 2113 2101 2090 2024 1952 1852 1759 1719 1751 1754 1729 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.7 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.4 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.5 130.0 130.3 130.5 130.6 130.5 130.2 130.0 130.2 131.0 131.7 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 6 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 128.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 11.1% 9.5% 5.1% 0.0% 10.9% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.0% 3.7% 1.9% 0.1% 3.7% 4.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 15.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132018 KRISTY 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX